Most trading statistics online are recycled from other articles. These are measured directly from the price archive that powers the FxBacktest simulator — 25 instruments, daily history reaching back to 2009 on the longest-running markets, refreshed nightly. Every figure is reproducible from the method stated on each page.
in the archive
history
analysed
analysed
Download the raw data
Every figure in every study below is available as CSV and JSON, generated directly from the published tables so the two can never disagree. Free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
- /research/data/All datasets, one page
- /research/data/index.jsonMachine-readable index of every file
The studies
The Benchmark They Fined $10bn For Rigging
On the last business day of the month the 16:00 London fix moves 10.1bp against a normal day's 5.5 - then gives back 2.71bp within the hour.
Read the study ->Forex Volatility by Hour of Day
Average hourly range for 10 instruments across every UTC hour, from 922,937 hourly bars. EUR/USD's busiest hour is 3.4× its quietest.
Read the study ->Average Daily Range: 25 Markets
Forex, gold, oil, indices, crypto and stocks on one comparable percentage scale. ETH/USD leads at 6.50% a day.
Read the study ->What Spreads Really Cost
Measured spread across 25 instruments. On EUR/USD it eats 1.2% of the hourly range at the best hour and 26.7% at the worst.
Read the study ->Do Trading Indicators Actually Work?
232,772 signals tested. The golden cross scores a negative edge, and long signals only look good because a random long won 50.2% while a random short won 47.1%.
Read the study ->Where Stops Actually Get Hit
92,585 trades racing a stop against a target. At every ratio tested the win rate landed within 0.4 points of its own breakeven - the stop-to-target ratio carries no edge.
Read the study ->How Wrong Is a 30-Trade Backtest?
Your backtest says 55% - how far from the truth could that be? 20,000 resamples from a pool with a known answer, giving the error bar for every sample size.
Read the study ->Does the London Open Range Break Hold?
93,843 breaks measured. The range breaks on 99.8% of days and the break follows through just 50.3% of the time - a coin flip before costs.
Read the study ->Do Candlestick Patterns Actually Work?
420,317 signals tested against a matched random entry. The best pattern beats it by 6.5 points; after spreads, 1 of 24 daily combinations is profitable.
Read the study ->When the Daily High and Low Actually Form
47.9% of EUR/USD's daily range exists by 08:00 UTC, and the Asian range survives the whole day on just 1.0% of days.
Read the study ->Nasdaq (US100) Volatility by Hour
20.6% of the Nasdaq's daily movement lands in the two hours after the US open — and the closing hour sets the day's high more often than the open.
Read the study ->Index Overnight Gaps
9,722 session breaks on US500, US100, US30 and GER40. 89% fill within 24 hours, but 5.5% of nights gap more than half a daily range.
Read the study ->What US Economic Releases Actually Do to Price
The Fed decision hour runs 5.21x a normal EUR/USD bar — and the size of the NFP surprise does not predict the move.
Read the study ->Weekend Gap Statistics
88.4% of EUR/USD weekend gaps close within 24 hours. But the Sunday open print is depressed by the reopen spread.
Read the study ->The Risk of Ruin Table
20 strategy profiles × 6 position sizes. A break-even strategy has a 94.08% chance of a 50% drawdown at 10% risk per trade.
Read the study ->A few of the findings
- EUR/USD averages 27.7 pips of range at 14:00 UTC and 8.1 pips at 22:00 UTC — the same pair, 3.4× the movement.
- All 10 instruments measured hit their widest hourly range during the London/New York overlap.
- EUR/USD's average daily range is 90.7 pips (0.76% of price) across 4,252 sessions.
- ETH/USD moves 12× the daily percentage range of EUR/CHF.
- A break-even strategy risking 10% per trade has a 94.08% chance of losing half the account inside 500 trades.
- EUR/USD's spread consumes 1.2% of the hourly range at the cheapest hour and 26.7% at the dearest - a 22x swing in cost across the same day.
How this research is produced
- Source: Dukascopy bid OHLC, held in the FxBacktest archive and replayed bar-for-bar by the simulator. No third-party statistics are recycled.
- Reproducibility: every page states its window, sample size, exclusions and aggregation method, so the figures can be checked independently.
- Honest limits: all ranges are bid-side and exclude spread, commission and slippage. Windows differ by instrument and are always stated.
- No cherry-picking: studies use the full available history for each instrument rather than a selected window.
Using this research
Everything here is free to quote, screenshot or republish — in an article, a video, a newsletter or a course — as long as you credit FxBacktest with a link back to the study you used. Each study page carries a copy-ready attribution line at the bottom. If you need a figure that is not published yet, or a cut of the data for a specific instrument or period, get in touch and we will look at adding it.
Research FAQ
What data does FxBacktest research use?
Dukascopy bid OHLC data held in the FxBacktest historical archive — the same price series the simulator replays for users. It covers 25 instruments across forex, metals, energy, indices, crypto and single stocks, with daily and 4-hour history reaching back to 2009–2010 on the longest-running pairs, and it refreshes nightly.
Can I republish these charts and tables?
Yes. Every study on this page is free to quote, screenshot or republish in articles, videos, newsletters and courses, provided you credit FxBacktest with a link back to the study you used. Each page carries a copy-ready attribution line.
How often is the research updated?
The underlying price archive updates nightly. The studies themselves are regenerated periodically from that archive, and each page states the month it was last rebuilt along with the exact date range of the data behind it.
Is this financial advice?
No. These are historical measurements published for education and reference. They describe what markets have done, which is not a prediction of what they will do, and nothing here is a recommendation to trade any instrument.