Key takeaways
- The bull flip is the best daily trend signal we measured. +2.4 points at a 1:2 target, significant at both targets.
- The bear flip is nothing. +0.1 points over its control. The asymmetry is near total.
- It beats every moving-average cross. Same data, same method, and the ATR-based flip outperforms the price-based ones.
- The 4-hour version inverts. There the bearish flip is the significant side and the bullish flip is flat.
What it does
Supertrend draws a single line that follows price at a distance set by volatility. It takes the midpoint of each bar's range, offsets it by a multiple of the average true range — conventionally 3 × ATR(10) — and then ratchets that band so it only ever moves toward price, never away. When price closes through the band, the line flips to the other side and the trend reading reverses.
Because the offset is volatility-scaled rather than a fixed distance or a price average, Supertrend adapts its sensitivity to conditions automatically: wide in violent markets, tight in quiet ones. The signals tested here are the flips themselves.
How this was measured
Every figure below comes from our own tick-derived archive, not from a vendor summary. The method is identical to the one behind our indicator signal study, so the numbers here are directly comparable to every other signal we publish.
- Data. Dukascopy bid-side OHLC for 93 instruments — major and cross FX pairs, gold, silver, stock indices and crypto — from 2010 to August 2026.
- The trade. Enter at the open of the next bar. Stop at 1.5 × ATR(14), targets at 1:1 and 1:2, walking forward up to 40 bars.
- Ties go against you. A bar holding both stop and target is scored a loss every time.
- Real costs. Per-instrument median spreads from our own bid/ask measurement.
- The control. For every signal, a trade with the same direction and the same stop distance at a random bar — five draws each. The gap between the two columns is all the signal is worth.
The result
Breakeven is a 50% win rate at a 1:1 target and 33.3% at 1:2. "Matched random" is a trade in the same direction with the same stop distance, opened at a random bar.
| Signal | Target | Trades | Win rate | Matched random | Edge | Significance | Beats breakeven? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supertrend(10,3) flips up | 1:1 | 3,423 | 54.2% | 52.3% | +1.9 pts | * | Yes |
| Supertrend(10,3) flips down | 1:1 | 16,813 | 48.8% | 47.8% | +0.9 pts | * | No |
| Supertrend(10,3) flips down | 1:1 | 3,398 | 46.9% | 46.3% | +0.6 pts | not significant | No |
| Supertrend(10,3) flips up | 1:1 | 16,821 | 48.8% | 49.2% | -0.3 pts | not significant | No |
| Supertrend(10,3) flips up | 1:2 | 3,263 | 37.0% | 34.6% | +2.4 pts | ** | Yes |
| Supertrend(10,3) flips down | 1:2 | 16,241 | 31.6% | 30.6% | +1.1 pts | ** | No |
| Supertrend(10,3) flips up | 1:2 | 16,147 | 32.5% | 32.2% | +0.2 pts | not significant | No |
| Supertrend(10,3) flips down | 1:2 | 3,237 | 29.0% | 28.9% | +0.1 pts | not significant | No |
The comparison that matters is against the moving-average crosses, measured on identical data with an identical engine. Supertrend's bullish flip outperforms every one of them, including the golden cross that it functionally resembles. Scaling the trigger distance by volatility rather than averaging price appears to be doing real work.
The asymmetry is the other half of the finding, and it is severe. The bearish flip's +0.1 points across more than three thousand daily trades is a well-measured nothing. Anyone running Supertrend symmetrically is trading one signal that works and one that does not, and paying spread on both.
How to use it
- Long side, daily bars, 1:2 target. That combination carries the result.
- Do not mirror it. The bear flip is not the bull flip inverted; on daily data it has no measurable edge at all.
- Let the volatility scaling do its job. The reason to prefer Supertrend to a moving-average cross is that its trigger distance adapts. Overriding that with a fixed stop distance discards the advantage.
- Check the timeframe before assuming the direction. On 4-hour bars the significant side is the bearish flip, not the bullish one.
What does not work
- The bearish flip on daily charts. +0.1 points across thousands of trades.
- Assuming the daily result transfers down. On 4-hour bars the bullish flip is flat and the bearish flip is the one with the edge - the opposite of the daily reading.
- Treating a +2.4 point edge as a system. It is the best daily trend number here and it is still under three points.
Limitations
- Default parameters only. Tuning them on this same data would be curve-fitting.
- One stop rule (1.5 × ATR) and two fixed targets. Trailing stops, time exits and scaling are untested.
- Signals are taken in isolation, with no trend filter or confluence — which is how the isolated value of each is measured, but not how most people trade them.
- Bid data with modelled ask. Spread is a measured median, not a replayed tick-level ask feed.
- Spread only — no commission or swap. Both would push results further down.
- A statistically significant edge of one point is still only one point. Large samples make small effects certain; they do not make them large.
Cite or republish this data
Free to quote, screenshot, or republish — in an article, a video, a newsletter, or a course — as long as you credit FxBacktest with a link back to this page.
Frequently asked
Does Supertrend work?
The bullish flip does, on daily charts. It beat a matched random long with the same stop distance by +2.4 points at a 1:2 target across 93 instruments and sixteen years, with significance at both targets, making it the strongest daily trend signal we measured. The bearish flip produced +0.1 points, which is indistinguishable from random.
Is Supertrend better than a moving average crossover?
On this data, yes. Measured with the same engine on the same 93 instruments, the Supertrend bullish flip outperformed every moving-average crossover we tested, including the EMA 50/200 golden cross which scored a negative edge on daily charts. Scaling the trigger distance by volatility rather than averaging price appears to be the reason.
What are the best Supertrend settings?
We tested the common 10-period, 3x ATR configuration only. Searching for better parameters on the same data used to evaluate them would be curve-fitting. The finding that transfers is the asymmetry rather than the parameters: on daily bars the bullish flip carried the edge and the bearish flip carried none.
Why does the bearish Supertrend flip not work?
Partly because the sample period rose - indices, gold and crypto trended up between 2010 and 2026, so short signals face a headwind that the control column already accounts for. But even after subtracting that drift the bearish flip adds +0.1 points, so it is not simply a drift artefact. The signal genuinely does not identify downside better than a random short.
How were these Supertrend numbers produced?
Enter at the open of the bar after the flip, stop 1.5 x ATR(14) away, targets at 1:1 and 1:2, walking forward up to 40 bars. Bars containing both stop and target are scored as losses. Real per-instrument median spreads are applied. Every signal is compared against five random-entry draws in the same direction with the same stop distance. Data is Dukascopy bid OHLC for 93 instruments, 2010 to August 2026.