{
  "study": "stop-target-hit-rates",
  "title": "Where Stops Actually Get Hit: 92,585 Trades Measured",
  "description": "We raced a stop against a target on 92,585 trades across 29 markets and 16 years. At every ratio tested - from a half-ATR stop to a triple-ATR target - the measured win rate landed within 0.4 points of its own breakeven rate. The stop-to-target ratio carries no edge at all.",
  "source": "https://fxbacktest.app/research/stop-target-hit-rates/",
  "publisher": "FxBacktest",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "FxBacktest, https://fxbacktest.app/research/stop-target-hit-rates/",
  "datePublished": "2026-08-24",
  "dateModified": "2026-09-08",
  "generated": "2026-09-18",
  "tables": [
    {
      "id": "the-result-every-ratio-is-its",
      "caption": "The result: every ratio is its own breakeven",
      "captionSource": "heading",
      "columns": [
        "Stop / target",
        "Trades tested",
        "Target hit first (measured)",
        "Needed just to break even",
        "Difference",
        "Profit per trade"
      ],
      "rowCount": 6,
      "rows": [
        {
          "Stop / target": "2×ATR stop / 1×ATR target",
          "Trades tested": 92577,
          "Target hit first (measured)": 66.97,
          "Needed just to break even": 66.67,
          "Difference": "+0.31 pts",
          "Profit per trade": "+0.009R"
        },
        {
          "Stop / target": "1.5×ATR stop / 1.5×ATR target",
          "Trades tested": 92582,
          "Target hit first (measured)": 50.32,
          "Needed just to break even": 50,
          "Difference": "+0.32 pts",
          "Profit per trade": "+0.009R"
        },
        {
          "Stop / target": "1×ATR stop / 1×ATR target",
          "Trades tested": 92585,
          "Target hit first (measured)": 49.93,
          "Needed just to break even": 50,
          "Difference": "-0.07 pts",
          "Profit per trade": "-0.001R"
        },
        {
          "Stop / target": "1×ATR stop / 2×ATR target",
          "Trades tested": 92584,
          "Target hit first (measured)": 33.52,
          "Needed just to break even": 33.33,
          "Difference": "+0.18 pts",
          "Profit per trade": "+0.005R"
        },
        {
          "Stop / target": "1×ATR stop / 3×ATR target",
          "Trades tested": 92577,
          "Target hit first (measured)": 25.38,
          "Needed just to break even": 25,
          "Difference": "+0.38 pts",
          "Profit per trade": "+0.015R"
        },
        {
          "Stop / target": "0.5×ATR stop / 1×ATR target",
          "Trades tested": 92587,
          "Target hit first (measured)": 32.95,
          "Needed just to break even": 33.33,
          "Difference": "-0.38 pts",
          "Profit per trade": "-0.006R"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "per-instrument-results",
      "caption": "Per-instrument results",
      "captionSource": "heading",
      "columns": [
        "Instrument",
        "Trades",
        "1:1 (need 50%)",
        "1:2 (need 33.3%)",
        "2:1 (need 66.7%)"
      ],
      "rowCount": 24,
      "rows": [
        {
          "Instrument": "US500",
          "Trades": 2947,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 51.8,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 35.3,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 67.3
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "US30",
          "Trades": 2991,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 51.4,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 35.8,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 67.6
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "CADCHF",
          "Trades": 4166,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 51.4,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 33.6,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 67.5
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "EURUSD",
          "Trades": 4166,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 51.2,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 34.3,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 67.2
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "EURCHF",
          "Trades": 4166,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 51.2,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 33,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 67.7
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "US100",
          "Trades": 2956,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 51.2,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 35.7,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 67.6
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "GBPJPY",
          "Trades": 4166,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 51.2,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 34.8,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 67.1
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "EURJPY",
          "Trades": 4166,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 51.1,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 34.8,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 67.8
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "BTCUSD",
          "Trades": 3019,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 50.5,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 34,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 66.7
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "ETHUSD",
          "Trades": 2884,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 50.4,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 33.4,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 65.7
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "GBPUSD",
          "Trades": 4166,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 50.2,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 33.5,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 67.2
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "USDJPY",
          "Trades": 4166,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 50.1,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 33.8,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 66.7
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "USDCAD",
          "Trades": 4166,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 50.1,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 33.9,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 68
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "GER40",
          "Trades": 2876,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 50.1,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 35.3,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 67.3
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "BRENT",
          "Trades": 3415,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 49.8,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 33.1,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 66.4
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "AUDUSD",
          "Trades": 4166,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 49.7,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 33.4,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 67.1
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "NZDCHF",
          "Trades": 4166,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 49.5,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 31.9,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 66.7
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "AUDJPY",
          "Trades": 4166,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 49,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 33.3,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 67.6
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "NZDUSD",
          "Trades": 2258,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 48.9,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 33.2,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 66.8
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "AUDCAD",
          "Trades": 4166,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 48.7,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 31.7,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 66.5
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "EURGBP",
          "Trades": 4166,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 48.6,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 32.6,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 66.7
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "XAUUSD",
          "Trades": 4166,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 48.4,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 32.3,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 65.1
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "GBPCAD",
          "Trades": 4166,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 47.4,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 31.2,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 67.6
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "XAGUSD",
          "Trades": 3838,
          "1:1 (need 50%)": 46.7,
          "1:2 (need 33.3%)": 30.8,
          "2:1 (need 66.7%)": 65.6
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}