{
  "study": "indicator-signal-win-rates",
  "title": "Do Trading Indicators Work? 232,772 Signals Tested",
  "description": "We tested RSI, MACD, moving average crosses, Bollinger Bands and Stochastic across 28 instruments and 232,772 signals against a matched-risk random entry, with real spreads applied. The golden cross has a negative edge. On 4-hour charts almost nothing clears breakeven.",
  "source": "https://fxbacktest.app/research/indicator-signal-win-rates/",
  "publisher": "FxBacktest",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "FxBacktest, https://fxbacktest.app/research/indicator-signal-win-rates/",
  "datePublished": "2026-08-24",
  "dateModified": "2026-09-08",
  "generated": "2026-09-18",
  "tables": [
    {
      "id": "daily-charts-1-1-target",
      "caption": "Daily charts: 1:1 target",
      "captionSource": "heading",
      "columns": [
        "Signal",
        "Trades",
        "Win rate",
        "Matched random",
        "Edge",
        "Significance",
        "Beats breakeven?"
      ],
      "rowCount": 14,
      "rows": [
        {
          "Signal": "Death cross (EMA 50/200)",
          "Trades": 333,
          "Win rate": 49.2,
          "Matched random": 46.8,
          "Edge": "+2.5 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "EMA 9/21 bear cross",
          "Trades": 2438,
          "Win rate": 48.6,
          "Matched random": 46.6,
          "Edge": "+1.9 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Stochastic bull cross <20",
          "Trades": 3529,
          "Win rate": 52.1,
          "Matched random": 50.2,
          "Edge": "+1.9 pts",
          "Significance": "*",
          "Beats breakeven?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Price crosses above EMA200",
          "Trades": 2175,
          "Win rate": 52,
          "Matched random": 50.3,
          "Edge": "+1.7 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "RSI(14) exits overbought",
          "Trades": 1741,
          "Win rate": 48.6,
          "Matched random": 47.1,
          "Edge": "+1.4 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Price crosses below EMA200",
          "Trades": 2174,
          "Win rate": 49.1,
          "Matched random": 47.7,
          "Edge": "+1.4 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "MACD bullish cross",
          "Trades": 4308,
          "Win rate": 51.5,
          "Matched random": 50.2,
          "Edge": "+1.3 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "MACD bearish cross",
          "Trades": 4310,
          "Win rate": 48.7,
          "Matched random": 47.4,
          "Edge": "+1.2 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "RSI(14) exits oversold",
          "Trades": 1360,
          "Win rate": 51.5,
          "Matched random": 50.8,
          "Edge": "+0.7 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Close below lower Bollinger",
          "Trades": 3113,
          "Win rate": 51.1,
          "Matched random": 50.8,
          "Edge": "+0.3 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Golden cross (EMA 50/200)",
          "Trades": 334,
          "Win rate": 48.2,
          "Matched random": 48.4,
          "Edge": "-0.2 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Close above upper Bollinger",
          "Trades": 3301,
          "Win rate": 47.2,
          "Matched random": 47.5,
          "Edge": "-0.3 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "EMA 9/21 bull cross",
          "Trades": 2440,
          "Win rate": 50.5,
          "Matched random": 51,
          "Edge": "-0.5 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Stochastic bear cross >80",
          "Trades": 5128,
          "Win rate": 45.7,
          "Matched random": 46.9,
          "Edge": "-1.2 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "daily-charts-1-2-target",
      "caption": "Daily charts: 1:2 target",
      "captionSource": "heading",
      "columns": [
        "Signal",
        "Trades",
        "Win rate",
        "Matched random",
        "Edge",
        "Significance",
        "Beats breakeven?"
      ],
      "rowCount": 14,
      "rows": [
        {
          "Signal": "RSI(14) exits oversold",
          "Trades": 1289,
          "Win rate": 34.8,
          "Matched random": 31.1,
          "Edge": "+3.7 pts",
          "Significance": "*",
          "Beats breakeven?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Stochastic bull cross <20",
          "Trades": 3394,
          "Win rate": 34.7,
          "Matched random": 32.7,
          "Edge": "+2.0 pts",
          "Significance": "*",
          "Beats breakeven?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "MACD bearish cross",
          "Trades": 4166,
          "Win rate": 31.4,
          "Matched random": 29.5,
          "Edge": "+1.9 pts",
          "Significance": "*",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Close below lower Bollinger",
          "Trades": 2985,
          "Win rate": 34.9,
          "Matched random": 33.1,
          "Edge": "+1.9 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "MACD bullish cross",
          "Trades": 4110,
          "Win rate": 34.7,
          "Matched random": 33.1,
          "Edge": "+1.6 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Close above upper Bollinger",
          "Trades": 3192,
          "Win rate": 31.6,
          "Matched random": 30.1,
          "Edge": "+1.5 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Price crosses above EMA200",
          "Trades": 2077,
          "Win rate": 33.4,
          "Matched random": 32.1,
          "Edge": "+1.2 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "EMA 9/21 bull cross",
          "Trades": 2325,
          "Win rate": 33.8,
          "Matched random": 32.9,
          "Edge": "+0.9 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "RSI(14) exits overbought",
          "Trades": 1691,
          "Win rate": 30.9,
          "Matched random": 30.1,
          "Edge": "+0.9 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "EMA 9/21 bear cross",
          "Trades": 2346,
          "Win rate": 31.5,
          "Matched random": 30.7,
          "Edge": "+0.8 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Price crosses below EMA200",
          "Trades": 2089,
          "Win rate": 30.5,
          "Matched random": 30.3,
          "Edge": "+0.2 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Stochastic bear cross >80",
          "Trades": 4988,
          "Win rate": 29.2,
          "Matched random": 29.6,
          "Edge": "-0.4 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Death cross (EMA 50/200)",
          "Trades": 319,
          "Win rate": 29.2,
          "Matched random": 29.6,
          "Edge": "-0.4 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Golden cross (EMA 50/200)",
          "Trades": 321,
          "Win rate": 31.5,
          "Matched random": 34.9,
          "Edge": "-3.5 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "four-hour-charts",
      "caption": "Four-hour charts",
      "captionSource": "heading",
      "columns": [
        "Signal",
        "Trades",
        "Win rate",
        "Matched random",
        "Edge",
        "Significance",
        "Beats breakeven?"
      ],
      "rowCount": 14,
      "rows": [
        {
          "Signal": "Death cross (EMA 50/200)",
          "Trades": 1780,
          "Win rate": 50.2,
          "Matched random": 46.9,
          "Edge": "+3.3 pts",
          "Significance": "*",
          "Beats breakeven?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Golden cross (EMA 50/200)",
          "Trades": 1775,
          "Win rate": 49.4,
          "Matched random": 48,
          "Edge": "+1.4 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Price crosses below EMA200",
          "Trades": 11326,
          "Win rate": 48,
          "Matched random": 46.8,
          "Edge": "+1.2 pts",
          "Significance": "*",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "EMA 9/21 bear cross",
          "Trades": 12751,
          "Win rate": 47.9,
          "Matched random": 46.7,
          "Edge": "+1.2 pts",
          "Significance": "*",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "MACD bearish cross",
          "Trades": 22648,
          "Win rate": 47.8,
          "Matched random": 46.8,
          "Edge": "+1.1 pts",
          "Significance": "**",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "MACD bullish cross",
          "Trades": 22621,
          "Win rate": 48.8,
          "Matched random": 47.8,
          "Edge": "+1.0 pts",
          "Significance": "**",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "RSI(14) exits overbought",
          "Trades": 10015,
          "Win rate": 47.2,
          "Matched random": 46.4,
          "Edge": "+0.9 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "EMA 9/21 bull cross",
          "Trades": 12748,
          "Win rate": 48.5,
          "Matched random": 47.9,
          "Edge": "+0.6 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Stochastic bull cross <20",
          "Trades": 19185,
          "Win rate": 48.6,
          "Matched random": 48.1,
          "Edge": "+0.4 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "RSI(14) exits oversold",
          "Trades": 8728,
          "Win rate": 48.4,
          "Matched random": 48.1,
          "Edge": "+0.2 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Close below lower Bollinger",
          "Trades": 17038,
          "Win rate": 48.3,
          "Matched random": 48.1,
          "Edge": "+0.2 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Stochastic bear cross >80",
          "Trades": 26606,
          "Win rate": 46.7,
          "Matched random": 46.6,
          "Edge": "+0.1 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Close above upper Bollinger",
          "Trades": 17543,
          "Win rate": 46.7,
          "Matched random": 46.7,
          "Edge": "-0.0 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Price crosses above EMA200",
          "Trades": 11324,
          "Win rate": 48,
          "Matched random": 48.3,
          "Edge": "-0.2 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "four-hour-charts-2",
      "caption": "Four-hour charts",
      "captionSource": "heading",
      "columns": [
        "Signal",
        "Trades",
        "Win rate",
        "Matched random",
        "Edge",
        "Significance",
        "Beats breakeven?"
      ],
      "rowCount": 14,
      "rows": [
        {
          "Signal": "Death cross (EMA 50/200)",
          "Trades": 1711,
          "Win rate": 32.6,
          "Matched random": 30.1,
          "Edge": "+2.5 pts",
          "Significance": "*",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "RSI(14) exits oversold",
          "Trades": 8385,
          "Win rate": 31.5,
          "Matched random": 30,
          "Edge": "+1.5 pts",
          "Significance": "**",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "EMA 9/21 bull cross",
          "Trades": 12183,
          "Win rate": 32.2,
          "Matched random": 30.8,
          "Edge": "+1.4 pts",
          "Significance": "**",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "MACD bullish cross",
          "Trades": 21693,
          "Win rate": 32.4,
          "Matched random": 31.2,
          "Edge": "+1.3 pts",
          "Significance": "***",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "MACD bearish cross",
          "Trades": 22026,
          "Win rate": 31,
          "Matched random": 29.9,
          "Edge": "+1.2 pts",
          "Significance": "***",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Price crosses below EMA200",
          "Trades": 10941,
          "Win rate": 30.9,
          "Matched random": 29.7,
          "Edge": "+1.2 pts",
          "Significance": "*",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "EMA 9/21 bear cross",
          "Trades": 12406,
          "Win rate": 31.2,
          "Matched random": 30.1,
          "Edge": "+1.1 pts",
          "Significance": "*",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Close below lower Bollinger",
          "Trades": 16420,
          "Win rate": 31.7,
          "Matched random": 30.7,
          "Edge": "+1.1 pts",
          "Significance": "**",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Close above upper Bollinger",
          "Trades": 17047,
          "Win rate": 30.9,
          "Matched random": 29.9,
          "Edge": "+1.0 pts",
          "Significance": "**",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Price crosses above EMA200",
          "Trades": 10807,
          "Win rate": 31.8,
          "Matched random": 30.8,
          "Edge": "+1.0 pts",
          "Significance": "*",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "RSI(14) exits overbought",
          "Trades": 9737,
          "Win rate": 30.8,
          "Matched random": 29.8,
          "Edge": "+1.0 pts",
          "Significance": "*",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Stochastic bull cross <20",
          "Trades": 18524,
          "Win rate": 31.7,
          "Matched random": 30.8,
          "Edge": "+1.0 pts",
          "Significance": "*",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Golden cross (EMA 50/200)",
          "Trades": 1696,
          "Win rate": 31.2,
          "Matched random": 30.6,
          "Edge": "+0.6 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Signal": "Stochastic bear cross >80",
          "Trades": 25846,
          "Win rate": 30.2,
          "Matched random": 30.2,
          "Edge": "-0.0 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}