{
  "study": "economic-release-volatility",
  "title": "What US Economic Releases Actually Do to Price",
  "description": "The Fed decision hour runs 5.21x a normal EUR/USD hour and NFP 2.69x — but the size of the NFP surprise does not predict the size of the move. 3,963 releases measured against bid-side bars.",
  "source": "https://fxbacktest.app/research/economic-release-volatility/",
  "publisher": "FxBacktest",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "FxBacktest, https://fxbacktest.app/research/economic-release-volatility/",
  "datePublished": "2026-07-30",
  "dateModified": "2026-09-08",
  "generated": "2026-09-18",
  "tables": [
    {
      "id": "eurusd-range-in-the-hour-containing",
      "caption": "EUR/USD range in the hour containing the release, versus a normal bar at the same hour",
      "captionSource": "caption",
      "columns": [
        "Release",
        "Releases",
        "Avg range (pips)",
        "Median",
        "vs a normal hour"
      ],
      "rowCount": 13,
      "rows": [
        {
          "Release": "Fed rate decision",
          "Releases": 91,
          "Avg range (pips)": 73.2,
          "Median": 65.4,
          "vs a normal hour": "5.21x"
        },
        {
          "Release": "Non-farm payrolls (NFP)",
          "Releases": 180,
          "Avg range (pips)": 63.6,
          "Median": 56.6,
          "vs a normal hour": "2.69x"
        },
        {
          "Release": "FOMC meeting minutes",
          "Releases": 99,
          "Avg range (pips)": 36.8,
          "Median": 33,
          "vs a normal hour": "2.67x"
        },
        {
          "Release": "CPI (inflation report)",
          "Releases": 82,
          "Avg range (pips)": 49.5,
          "Median": 39.6,
          "vs a normal hour": "2.08x"
        },
        {
          "Release": "Retail sales",
          "Releases": 175,
          "Avg range (pips)": 37.3,
          "Median": 33.8,
          "vs a normal hour": "1.59x"
        },
        {
          "Release": "ISM manufacturing PMI",
          "Releases": 151,
          "Avg range (pips)": 36.9,
          "Median": 32,
          "vs a normal hour": "1.46x"
        },
        {
          "Release": "ISM services PMI",
          "Releases": 129,
          "Avg range (pips)": 34.4,
          "Median": 29.5,
          "vs a normal hour": "1.35x"
        },
        {
          "Release": "GDP (advance)",
          "Releases": 54,
          "Avg range (pips)": 31.9,
          "Median": 27.3,
          "vs a normal hour": "1.35x"
        },
        {
          "Release": "Durable goods orders",
          "Releases": 112,
          "Avg range (pips)": 31.1,
          "Median": 28.1,
          "vs a normal hour": "1.33x"
        },
        {
          "Release": "PPI (producer prices)",
          "Releases": 161,
          "Avg range (pips)": 30.9,
          "Median": 27.8,
          "vs a normal hour": "1.31x"
        },
        {
          "Release": "Consumer confidence (CB)",
          "Releases": 132,
          "Avg range (pips)": 32.2,
          "Median": 28.8,
          "vs a normal hour": "1.27x"
        },
        {
          "Release": "Weekly unemployment claims",
          "Releases": 98,
          "Avg range (pips)": 28.5,
          "Median": 23.8,
          "vs a normal hour": "1.21x"
        },
        {
          "Release": "Any high-impact US release (pooled)",
          "Releases": 2279,
          "Avg range (pips)": 38.8,
          "Median": 31.6,
          "vs a normal hour": "1.82x"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "release-hour-range-as-a-multiple",
      "caption": "Release-hour range as a multiple of each instrument's own non-event baseline",
      "captionSource": "caption",
      "columns": [
        "Release",
        "EUR/USD",
        "GBP/USD",
        "USD/JPY",
        "Gold",
        "US100 (Nasdaq)",
        "US500 (S&P)"
      ],
      "rowCount": 8,
      "rows": [
        {
          "Release": "Fed rate decision",
          "EUR/USD": "5.21x",
          "GBP/USD": "4.59x",
          "USD/JPY": "4.66x",
          "Gold": "3.27x",
          "US100 (Nasdaq)": "2.19x",
          "US500 (S&P)": "2.33x"
        },
        {
          "Release": "Non-farm payrolls (NFP)",
          "EUR/USD": "2.69x",
          "GBP/USD": "2.28x",
          "USD/JPY": "3.33x",
          "Gold": "2.25x",
          "US100 (Nasdaq)": "1.9x",
          "US500 (S&P)": "2.03x"
        },
        {
          "Release": "CPI (inflation report)",
          "EUR/USD": "2.08x",
          "GBP/USD": "1.93x",
          "USD/JPY": "2.66x",
          "Gold": "1.58x",
          "US100 (Nasdaq)": "2.68x",
          "US500 (S&P)": "2.64x"
        },
        {
          "Release": "FOMC meeting minutes",
          "EUR/USD": "2.67x",
          "GBP/USD": "2.28x",
          "USD/JPY": "2.37x",
          "Gold": "1.74x",
          "US100 (Nasdaq)": "1.1x",
          "US500 (S&P)": "1.19x"
        },
        {
          "Release": "Retail sales",
          "EUR/USD": "1.59x",
          "GBP/USD": "1.42x",
          "USD/JPY": "1.75x",
          "Gold": "1.2x",
          "US100 (Nasdaq)": "1.01x",
          "US500 (S&P)": "1.19x"
        },
        {
          "Release": "ISM manufacturing PMI",
          "EUR/USD": "1.46x",
          "GBP/USD": "1.34x",
          "USD/JPY": "1.55x",
          "Gold": "1.06x",
          "US100 (Nasdaq)": "0.98x",
          "US500 (S&P)": "1.09x"
        },
        {
          "Release": "Weekly unemployment claims",
          "EUR/USD": "1.21x",
          "GBP/USD": "1.14x",
          "USD/JPY": "1.23x",
          "Gold": "0.97x",
          "US100 (Nasdaq)": "0.49x",
          "US500 (S&P)": "0.67x"
        },
        {
          "Release": "Pooled high-impact",
          "EUR/USD": "1.82x",
          "GBP/USD": "1.65x",
          "USD/JPY": "1.84x",
          "Gold": "1.31x",
          "US100 (Nasdaq)": "1.12x",
          "US500 (S&P)": "1.23x"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "nfp-surprise-size-against-eurusd-release",
      "caption": "NFP surprise size against EUR/USD release-hour range (n=180)",
      "captionSource": "caption",
      "columns": [
        "Surprise tercile",
        "Miss vs forecast",
        "Median miss",
        "Mean range (pips)",
        "Median range"
      ],
      "rowCount": 3,
      "rows": [
        {
          "Surprise tercile": "Smallest third",
          "Miss vs forecast": "0-30K",
          "Median miss": "17K",
          "Mean range (pips)": 60.7,
          "Median range": 56.8
        },
        {
          "Surprise tercile": "Middle third",
          "Miss vs forecast": "32-82K",
          "Median miss": "56K",
          "Mean range (pips)": 64.6,
          "Median range": 55.8
        },
        {
          "Surprise tercile": "Largest third",
          "Miss vs forecast": "82K+",
          "Median miss": "114K",
          "Mean range (pips)": 65.5,
          "Median range": 56.9
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "the-first-four-hours-after-a",
      "caption": "The first four hours after a release, EUR/USD M15 bars",
      "captionSource": "caption",
      "columns": [
        "Release",
        "Releases",
        "Release-bar range (15 min, pips)",
        "60-min displacement",
        "First 15 min direction holds 4h"
      ],
      "rowCount": 6,
      "rows": [
        {
          "Release": "Pooled high-impact",
          "Releases": 327,
          "Release-bar range (15 min, pips)": 29.5,
          "60-min displacement": 23.2,
          "First 15 min direction holds 4h": 63.5
        },
        {
          "Release": "NFP",
          "Releases": 36,
          "Release-bar range (15 min, pips)": 55.4,
          "60-min displacement": 37.9,
          "First 15 min direction holds 4h": 72.2
        },
        {
          "Release": "Retail sales",
          "Releases": 31,
          "Release-bar range (15 min, pips)": 29.2,
          "60-min displacement": 23.7,
          "First 15 min direction holds 4h": 74.2
        },
        {
          "Release": "ISM manufacturing",
          "Releases": 22,
          "Release-bar range (15 min, pips)": 26.5,
          "60-min displacement": 22.1,
          "First 15 min direction holds 4h": 77.3
        },
        {
          "Release": "CPI",
          "Releases": 18,
          "Release-bar range (15 min, pips)": 75.4,
          "60-min displacement": 55.5,
          "First 15 min direction holds 4h": 50
        },
        {
          "Release": "Fed rate decision",
          "Releases": 12,
          "Release-bar range (15 min, pips)": 41.8,
          "60-min displacement": 43.2,
          "First 15 min direction holds 4h": 66.7
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}