{
  "study": "candlestick-pattern-win-rates",
  "title": "Do Candlestick Patterns Work? 420,317 Signals Tested",
  "description": "We tested 12 candlestick patterns across 28 instruments and 698,580 bars against a matched-risk random control, with real measured spreads applied. The best pattern beats random by 6.5 points on daily charts. On 4-hour charts, none of the 12 is profitable after costs.",
  "source": "https://fxbacktest.app/research/candlestick-pattern-win-rates/",
  "publisher": "FxBacktest",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "FxBacktest, https://fxbacktest.app/research/candlestick-pattern-win-rates/",
  "datePublished": "2026-08-24",
  "dateModified": "2026-09-08",
  "generated": "2026-09-18",
  "tables": [
    {
      "id": "daily-charts-1-1-target",
      "caption": "Daily charts: 1:1 target",
      "captionSource": "heading",
      "columns": [
        "Pattern",
        "Signals",
        "Win rate",
        "Matched random",
        "Edge",
        "Significance",
        "Beats breakeven?"
      ],
      "rowCount": 12,
      "rows": [
        {
          "Pattern": "Hammer",
          "Signals": 729,
          "Win rate": 48.8,
          "Matched random": 42.4,
          "Edge": "+6.5 pts",
          "Significance": "**",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Bullish Pin Bar",
          "Signals": 6143,
          "Win rate": 47,
          "Matched random": 43.8,
          "Edge": "+3.2 pts",
          "Significance": "***",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Evening Star",
          "Signals": 4937,
          "Win rate": 44.8,
          "Matched random": 42.9,
          "Edge": "+2.0 pts",
          "Significance": "*",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Bullish Engulfing",
          "Signals": 7768,
          "Win rate": 47.9,
          "Matched random": 46.1,
          "Edge": "+1.8 pts",
          "Significance": "**",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Morning Star",
          "Signals": 5059,
          "Win rate": 47.7,
          "Matched random": 46,
          "Edge": "+1.7 pts",
          "Significance": "*",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Doji",
          "Signals": 5770,
          "Win rate": 37.6,
          "Matched random": 36.1,
          "Edge": "+1.6 pts",
          "Significance": "*",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Bearish Engulfing",
          "Signals": 8918,
          "Win rate": 45.3,
          "Matched random": 44.2,
          "Edge": "+1.1 pts",
          "Significance": "*",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Bearish Pin Bar",
          "Signals": 5372,
          "Win rate": 39.7,
          "Matched random": 38.8,
          "Edge": "+1.0 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Shooting Star",
          "Signals": 734,
          "Win rate": 39.1,
          "Matched random": 38.2,
          "Edge": "+0.9 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Inverted Hammer",
          "Signals": 555,
          "Win rate": 22,
          "Matched random": 21.3,
          "Edge": "+0.7 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Inside Bar",
          "Signals": 20759,
          "Win rate": 30.9,
          "Matched random": 30.4,
          "Edge": "+0.5 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Hanging Man",
          "Signals": 669,
          "Win rate": 15.1,
          "Matched random": 15.1,
          "Edge": "+0.0 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "daily-charts-1-2-target",
      "caption": "Daily charts: 1:2 target",
      "captionSource": "heading",
      "columns": [
        "Pattern",
        "Signals",
        "Win rate",
        "Matched random",
        "Edge",
        "Significance",
        "Beats breakeven?"
      ],
      "rowCount": 12,
      "rows": [
        {
          "Pattern": "Hammer",
          "Signals": 712,
          "Win rate": 34.6,
          "Matched random": 29.7,
          "Edge": "+4.8 pts",
          "Significance": "*",
          "Beats breakeven?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Shooting Star",
          "Signals": 724,
          "Win rate": 27.9,
          "Matched random": 25.2,
          "Edge": "+2.7 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Bullish Pin Bar",
          "Signals": 6027,
          "Win rate": 33.2,
          "Matched random": 30.7,
          "Edge": "+2.4 pts",
          "Significance": "***",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Inverted Hammer",
          "Signals": 555,
          "Win rate": 18.9,
          "Matched random": 16.6,
          "Edge": "+2.3 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Morning Star",
          "Signals": 4839,
          "Win rate": 32.4,
          "Matched random": 30.8,
          "Edge": "+1.6 pts",
          "Significance": "*",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Bearish Engulfing",
          "Signals": 8577,
          "Win rate": 30.3,
          "Matched random": 28.8,
          "Edge": "+1.6 pts",
          "Significance": "**",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Evening Star",
          "Signals": 4756,
          "Win rate": 29.8,
          "Matched random": 28.3,
          "Edge": "+1.6 pts",
          "Significance": "*",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Hanging Man",
          "Signals": 669,
          "Win rate": 13,
          "Matched random": 12,
          "Edge": "+1.0 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Bullish Engulfing",
          "Signals": 7358,
          "Win rate": 32.2,
          "Matched random": 31.3,
          "Edge": "+0.9 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Bearish Pin Bar",
          "Signals": 5316,
          "Win rate": 27.8,
          "Matched random": 27,
          "Edge": "+0.8 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Doji",
          "Signals": 5740,
          "Win rate": 27.8,
          "Matched random": 27.1,
          "Edge": "+0.7 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Inside Bar",
          "Signals": 20708,
          "Win rate": 24.1,
          "Matched random": 23.6,
          "Edge": "+0.5 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "four-hour-charts-the-edges-survive",
      "caption": "Four-hour charts: the edges survive, the profits do not",
      "captionSource": "heading",
      "columns": [
        "Pattern",
        "Signals",
        "Win rate",
        "Matched random",
        "Edge",
        "Significance",
        "Beats breakeven?"
      ],
      "rowCount": 12,
      "rows": [
        {
          "Pattern": "Inverted Hammer",
          "Signals": 3529,
          "Win rate": 20.3,
          "Matched random": 18.1,
          "Edge": "+2.2 pts",
          "Significance": "**",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Inside Bar",
          "Signals": 99295,
          "Win rate": 32.4,
          "Matched random": 30.4,
          "Edge": "+2.0 pts",
          "Significance": "***",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Bullish Engulfing",
          "Signals": 43548,
          "Win rate": 44.1,
          "Matched random": 42.6,
          "Edge": "+1.4 pts",
          "Significance": "***",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Morning Star",
          "Signals": 23808,
          "Win rate": 43.2,
          "Matched random": 41.8,
          "Edge": "+1.4 pts",
          "Significance": "***",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Doji",
          "Signals": 32553,
          "Win rate": 34.6,
          "Matched random": 33.6,
          "Edge": "+0.9 pts",
          "Significance": "**",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Bearish Pin Bar",
          "Signals": 29282,
          "Win rate": 40.3,
          "Matched random": 39.4,
          "Edge": "+0.9 pts",
          "Significance": "**",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Bullish Pin Bar",
          "Signals": 38203,
          "Win rate": 41.9,
          "Matched random": 41.1,
          "Edge": "+0.8 pts",
          "Significance": "**",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Hanging Man",
          "Signals": 4866,
          "Win rate": 13.4,
          "Matched random": 12.7,
          "Edge": "+0.7 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Evening Star",
          "Signals": 24092,
          "Win rate": 40.7,
          "Matched random": 40,
          "Edge": "+0.6 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Bearish Engulfing",
          "Signals": 44730,
          "Win rate": 41.9,
          "Matched random": 41.2,
          "Edge": "+0.6 pts",
          "Significance": "*",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Hammer",
          "Signals": 4918,
          "Win rate": 42.2,
          "Matched random": 41.6,
          "Edge": "+0.6 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Shooting Star",
          "Signals": 4080,
          "Win rate": 39,
          "Matched random": 39.7,
          "Edge": "-0.7 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "four-hour-charts-the-edges-survive-2",
      "caption": "Four-hour charts: the edges survive, the profits do not",
      "captionSource": "heading",
      "columns": [
        "Pattern",
        "Signals",
        "Win rate",
        "Matched random",
        "Edge",
        "Significance",
        "Beats breakeven?"
      ],
      "rowCount": 12,
      "rows": [
        {
          "Pattern": "Inverted Hammer",
          "Signals": 3527,
          "Win rate": 16.7,
          "Matched random": 14.7,
          "Edge": "+2.0 pts",
          "Significance": "**",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Bullish Engulfing",
          "Signals": 41586,
          "Win rate": 29.4,
          "Matched random": 28.3,
          "Edge": "+1.1 pts",
          "Significance": "***",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Morning Star",
          "Signals": 22915,
          "Win rate": 29.3,
          "Matched random": 28.2,
          "Edge": "+1.1 pts",
          "Significance": "***",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Inside Bar",
          "Signals": 98901,
          "Win rate": 23.5,
          "Matched random": 22.5,
          "Edge": "+1.0 pts",
          "Significance": "***",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Bearish Pin Bar",
          "Signals": 28912,
          "Win rate": 27.8,
          "Matched random": 26.8,
          "Edge": "+1.0 pts",
          "Significance": "***",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Evening Star",
          "Signals": 23398,
          "Win rate": 27.4,
          "Matched random": 26.6,
          "Edge": "+0.8 pts",
          "Significance": "*",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Bearish Engulfing",
          "Signals": 43071,
          "Win rate": 27.7,
          "Matched random": 27.2,
          "Edge": "+0.6 pts",
          "Significance": "*",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Doji",
          "Signals": 32309,
          "Win rate": 24.9,
          "Matched random": 24.4,
          "Edge": "+0.5 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Hanging Man",
          "Signals": 4866,
          "Win rate": 10.6,
          "Matched random": 10.3,
          "Edge": "+0.4 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Bullish Pin Bar",
          "Signals": 37334,
          "Win rate": 28.2,
          "Matched random": 27.9,
          "Edge": "+0.3 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Hammer",
          "Signals": 4775,
          "Win rate": 27.9,
          "Matched random": 28.1,
          "Edge": "-0.2 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Pattern": "Shooting Star",
          "Signals": 4018,
          "Win rate": 26,
          "Matched random": 27.1,
          "Edge": "-1.1 pts",
          "Significance": "not significant",
          "Beats breakeven?": "No"
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}