{
  "study": "asian-range-break",
  "title": "Does the Asian Range Break Fade or Follow? 23,520 Days Measured",
  "description": "Fading the first break of the Asian range is a staple of smart money trading. Across 23,520 days and 17,593 resolved breaks on 22 instruments, the fade resolves at 49.4% in forex - a coin flip. In crypto it is the opposite: ETH/USD continues 58.2% of the time, the only result in the study that survives correction.",
  "source": "https://fxbacktest.app/research/asian-range-break/",
  "publisher": "FxBacktest",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "FxBacktest, https://fxbacktest.app/research/asian-range-break/",
  "datePublished": "2026-09-22",
  "dateModified": "2026-09-22",
  "generated": "2026-09-22",
  "tables": [
    {
      "id": "asian-range-first-break-by-instrument",
      "caption": "Asian range first break by instrument",
      "captionSource": "caption",
      "columns": [
        "Instrument",
        "Days",
        "Resolved",
        "Reversal",
        "Continuation",
        "Breaks both sides",
        "z vs 50%",
        "Significant?"
      ],
      "rowCount": 22,
      "rows": [
        {
          "Instrument": "US30 (Dow)",
          "Days": 1128,
          "Resolved": 1076,
          "Reversal": 51.6,
          "Continuation": 48.4,
          "Breaks both sides": 68.1,
          "z vs 50%": "+1.04",
          "Significant?": "ns"
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "EUR/CHF",
          "Days": 1041,
          "Resolved": 922,
          "Reversal": 51.5,
          "Continuation": 48.5,
          "Breaks both sides": 55.3,
          "z vs 50%": "+0.92",
          "Significant?": "ns"
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "USD/CAD",
          "Days": 1041,
          "Resolved": 902,
          "Reversal": 50.9,
          "Continuation": 49.1,
          "Breaks both sides": 52.3,
          "z vs 50%": "+0.53",
          "Significant?": "ns"
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "Silver",
          "Days": 1091,
          "Resolved": 711,
          "Reversal": 50.6,
          "Continuation": 49.4,
          "Breaks both sides": 38.7,
          "z vs 50%": "+0.34",
          "Significant?": "ns"
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "NZD/CHF",
          "Days": 1041,
          "Resolved": 717,
          "Reversal": 50.5,
          "Continuation": 49.5,
          "Breaks both sides": 40,
          "z vs 50%": "+0.26",
          "Significant?": "ns"
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "US500 (S&P)",
          "Days": 1143,
          "Resolved": 1066,
          "Reversal": 50.5,
          "Continuation": 49.5,
          "Breaks both sides": 62.8,
          "z vs 50%": "+0.31",
          "Significant?": "ns"
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "US100 (Nasdaq)",
          "Days": 1143,
          "Resolved": 1057,
          "Reversal": 50.4,
          "Continuation": 49.6,
          "Breaks both sides": 62.8,
          "z vs 50%": "+0.28",
          "Significant?": "ns"
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "AUD/JPY",
          "Days": 1041,
          "Resolved": 477,
          "Reversal": 50.1,
          "Continuation": 49.9,
          "Breaks both sides": 25.3,
          "z vs 50%": "+0.05",
          "Significant?": "ns"
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "AUD/USD",
          "Days": 1040,
          "Resolved": 551,
          "Reversal": 50.1,
          "Continuation": 49.9,
          "Breaks both sides": 30.5,
          "z vs 50%": "+0.04",
          "Significant?": "ns"
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "CAD/CHF",
          "Days": 1041,
          "Resolved": 945,
          "Reversal": 49.9,
          "Continuation": 50.1,
          "Breaks both sides": 57.8,
          "z vs 50%": -0.03,
          "Significant?": "ns"
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "Brent crude",
          "Days": 1197,
          "Resolved": 1067,
          "Reversal": 49.6,
          "Continuation": 50.4,
          "Breaks both sides": 55.8,
          "z vs 50%": -0.28,
          "Significant?": "ns"
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "AUD/CAD",
          "Days": 1041,
          "Resolved": 586,
          "Reversal": 49.3,
          "Continuation": 50.7,
          "Breaks both sides": 31.7,
          "z vs 50%": -0.33,
          "Significant?": "ns"
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "EUR/GBP",
          "Days": 1041,
          "Resolved": 926,
          "Reversal": 49.2,
          "Continuation": 50.8,
          "Breaks both sides": 54,
          "z vs 50%": -0.46,
          "Significant?": "ns"
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "EUR/USD",
          "Days": 1040,
          "Resolved": 850,
          "Reversal": 48.8,
          "Continuation": 51.2,
          "Breaks both sides": 48.5,
          "z vs 50%": -0.69,
          "Significant?": "ns"
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "USD/JPY",
          "Days": 1040,
          "Resolved": 578,
          "Reversal": 48.8,
          "Continuation": 51.2,
          "Breaks both sides": 29.9,
          "z vs 50%": -0.58,
          "Significant?": "ns"
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "GBP/USD",
          "Days": 1040,
          "Resolved": 861,
          "Reversal": 48.3,
          "Continuation": 51.7,
          "Breaks both sides": 48.3,
          "z vs 50%": -0.99,
          "Significant?": "ns"
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "GBP/JPY",
          "Days": 1041,
          "Resolved": 663,
          "Reversal": 47.2,
          "Continuation": 52.8,
          "Breaks both sides": 34.8,
          "z vs 50%": -1.44,
          "Significant?": "ns"
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "Gold",
          "Days": 1090,
          "Resolved": 719,
          "Reversal": 46.3,
          "Continuation": 53.7,
          "Breaks both sides": 37.5,
          "z vs 50%": -1.98,
          "Significant?": "*"
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "GER40 (DAX)",
          "Days": 1125,
          "Resolved": 931,
          "Reversal": 46.3,
          "Continuation": 53.7,
          "Breaks both sides": 47.3,
          "z vs 50%": -2.26,
          "Significant?": "*"
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "EUR/JPY",
          "Days": 1041,
          "Resolved": 620,
          "Reversal": 45.8,
          "Continuation": 54.2,
          "Breaks both sides": 30.9,
          "z vs 50%": -2.09,
          "Significant?": "*"
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "BTC/USD",
          "Days": 1037,
          "Resolved": 705,
          "Reversal": 45,
          "Continuation": 55,
          "Breaks both sides": 37.1,
          "z vs 50%": -2.67,
          "Significant?": "**"
        },
        {
          "Instrument": "ETH/USD",
          "Days": 1037,
          "Resolved": 663,
          "Reversal": 41.8,
          "Continuation": 58.2,
          "Breaks both sides": 32.2,
          "z vs 50%": -4.23,
          "Significant?": "***"
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}